That would be the total milestone payments if a drug candidate results in a drug reaching market. The odds on that happening when there isn't even a drug candidate yet - just a screen for one - have got to be lower than 10%. And even if that does eventuate, the milestones will be spread over at least five years and probably closer to ten.
As I pointed out before, look at the history of Cytopia's $200+ million deal with Novartis to see the risks. Or the history of pretty much any drug development program to see just how long it takes to get a drug candidate to market.
The immediate question is whether Roche proceeds to a second stage with the drug candidates Phylogica found and if it does so what the milestone payment involved with that is. I think $10m is fantasy land, personally, and will be really happy if Roche pays two or three million. That will be enough to avoid any near-term capital raising, and any kind of progression of the partnership all will be an endorsement of the underlying discovery platform.
PYC Price at posting:
7.0¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
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