I think the best place to look at is the response to the ASX query for guidance. They basically said a CR will be dependant on if the two wells are commerical or not. Although even if the wells are commerical a CR may still be required as per the same announcement as it maybe better than a poor agreeent.
I look at it that the new wells are a 50/50 at this stage.
Then if the wells are successful we have a 50/50 chance of securing an agreement that avoids a CR.
Factor the above risks and work out if you want to have a punt or not.
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