This should run hard tomorrow but it does not inspire me.
MGO would be lucky to produce at AUS$1.15 lb.
My guess work.
110,000 tonnes per annum copper equivalent expanding to 220,000 tonnes per annum
498 million shares on issue, with cash reserves of approximately A$24 million
Capital estimate of approximately US$1Bn or AUS$1.2B.
2013 commissioning
Annual revenue at US$2.85lb and 85 cent exchange rate = US$812M
Costs AUS$1.15lb. EBITA = AUS$530M NPAT = $300
Raise $600M at 50 cents per share. Shares on issue at production = 2,000 million.
EPS = 15 cents 2013 share price target = $1.50
Gain per annum on 15 cents buy today = 200%+ on based production of 110,000 tonnes per annum
Then double rate of production to 220,000 tpa for double the EPS.
However, I think this is risky.
I doubt they can produce at AUS$1.15 per pound.
If copper is US$2.50 lb and costs $1.50lb, margin is $1.45 lb
EBITDA is $350M. NPAT = $200M EPS on 2,400 million shares = 10 cents or less. Maybe 8 cents.
DYOR. BYOB.
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