cashed up but...., page-10

A 10 bagger - worthy dream I guess...

So in 3 yrs time we are a decent sized producer 250Ktpa on our way to 500Ktpa and more - in other words still growth oriented stock.

Price/Earnings ration of 8 wouldn't be too unreasonable.

Therefore we would need (net) earnings of say 30cps

We know there is a further CR to come (end of yr I think to build out Otjo). Call it 500M shares outstanding now (fully diluted). Say a 1 for 5 rights (so 100M shares) at 30c to raise $30M and the rest is debt finance for Otjo. Total shares outstanding now 600M

So net earnings need to be 600M x 30cps = $180M

To earn net $180 I'm guessing that would need to be about $450M in Gross Revenue (sales)

and at current prices of $200 FOB that would mean we would need to ship 2.25Mtpa

If my sums are right (Mango you want to double check??) then no way 10 bagger. But a 5 bagger is possible in 3-4 years all things being equal (like demand for steel doesn't go down etc etc)

Regards,