E25 2.38% 21.5¢ element 25 limited

I'll go with -$4.4m in Dec 2021, but for the Mar 2022 I'll guess...

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    I'll go with -$4.4m in Dec 2021, but for the Mar 2022 I'll guess at +$7.2m (Revenue $19.6m, exp $12.2m).

    This March quarter guess assumes A$5.11/dmtu (ex smelter credits), 105kt shipped @ 33.7 and smelter credits on 85% of the first 54kt shipped.
    Costs climb to US$3/dmtu on 90kt production rates and some non C1 costs are added. If Wild-card #2 below happens, March will be a lot lower, but Dec could be positive.

    Wild-card #1 Do they get up to name plate sufficiently quickly for two ships to sale in Q3?

    Wild-card #2 - there's a 2nd shipment in Q2
    The 4th of November announcement was for a 47kt shipment, which was a strange number as only shortly before that E25 were advising shipping of over 50kt and 55-60kt. The 47kt could represent processed ore on hand when the shipment was booked (which also explains the laycan references and the ability for E25 to have extra ore to utilise this). If only 20kt was on hand at 30 Sept, production nearer 23kt/mth in October and 4kt for the four days of November would be needed to get to 47kt on the 4th of Nov. If the "over 20kt" was a few KT over, then 47kt by 4 November is achievable at 20kt/mth. If however this is the case, E25 can you review your communications because they could be much clearer!!. If at near zero ore at 4 November, there is potentially a 27kt shipment in Mid-late December. With FoB payment terms, payment could occurring on the last few days of December and turn Q2 into cashflow positive.

    Also,
    The 3 Dec 2020 announcement noted that the pre-ore sorting grade was 27.3%. The HP analysis used run-of-mine inputs and quoted 33.7%. A 50/50 mix of 27.3% + 33.7% ore averages 30.5% and is inside contract grade of 30-35%. If there is a building stockpile of ore that has been through the scrubber but not the sorter, this ore could be blended with sorted ore and shipped. This would create enough ore at the bottom end of the contract grade for a 4th shipment, and potentially even a full-sized 50kt+ shipment in Q2.

    A side benefit of doing this would be that the half year report has only a small amount of inventory.
 
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