catalyst for a rally, page-6

I believe that energy use is driven by population and industrialisation. Whilst the rate of growth of that dynamic will be impacted by current events it will continue to grow.

Low cost energy in US and Japanese dynamics will incraese long term demand for gas.

Karoon's assets will not come into production in next 5 years so it is not getting sold into any short term lower price.

Gas/oil price would be an issue if we had lots of debt and/or this was a dividend play, it's not.

SA drilling requires capital and we may get less of a price (less residual share) for that due to timing. SA asset value is not built into current price so it will get added in when we know how much we get.

Oil producers who can reduce supply will (fair track record there). US will use situation to squeeze Iran and will want supply up to enforce embargo. It's also easier for them to to take that stance with healthy domestic inventories. Russia is yet to show its hand but is unlikely to sit and watch its profit margin eroded or customer base reduced via development of alternate supply.

Unless you need to sell this is great place to have money parked for next 5 years. Even if we have people who have to get out in immediate period to genrate cash (thank you for the buying opportunity) this will return better than 2% 5 year bonds!

Yesterday I watched a debt free oil producer with growing reserves price tumble 15% between 10am and 2pm yesterday. It closed up for the day. There is a lot of cash on the sidelines and opportunities like this will be exploited by a relatively small amount of selling down to fuel panic and hit stop losses and then accumulation buying quickly following.