catalysts for change

Whilst there is enormous disappointment for all holders, and probably traders with the ongoing fall of VPG, I don't think we should expect VPG to do anything but drift in the current environment, and probably stay well below 10 cents over the next few months.

I think we need to expect this to be a long summer, and beyond, until there is a specific catalyst to see a material movement in the share price. Catalysts include:
- news of material asset sales
- takeover (view as unlikely)
- board renewal (appear reluctant)
- earnings updates (unlikely short term)
- reinstatement of distribution (very unlikely in next few months)

Thus, I see asset sales as the only shorter term event to take us out of "priced to fail" ranges.

Also, I wouldn't expect to see a big rebound ie 30 to 50 cents that many dream of over the next year. The global deleveraging process will take some years, as evidenced by the length of the proposed CNP deal. There will be many property sales that need to clear the market and debt levels significantly reduced before we see confidence return to the sector.

I don't think we will hear much from management or the board over the short term either. Whilst I think we should be hearing more from then, they get hit for six by the media everytime they open their mouths.

Bottom line, I see current prices as buying opportunities (yet with significant risks), but I am certainly not expecting to sell at a profit over 3-6 months.