Catch Group IPO

Originally posted by AllFuelledUp: ↑

>$315 million sales
= Pretty good

>$8.1 m EBITDA
= Is that all? whats that...2.5% margin? Lol. Fail

>EBITDA was forecast to increase to $17.4 million next year.
= Yeah well come back with your IPO next year please. You plan to raise $100m cash in this so your net return on that is a whopping 9%...I will be keen to see what revenue they project to get to $17.4m.
Edit: I found it. $411m. So 30% revenue growth. Well, $100m cash will buy $96m in revenue at ~10% net margin. Better than 2.5% margin I guess, but for a digital business that's whitegood seller margins.

>"We believe Catch can grow its share of online from ~1.5% to ~2.5% by our terminal year
=I wonder if they expect this to be new business or business taken from someone else? And if $315m of sales is 1.5% of online share how does $411m equal 2.5%?

>with its marketplace offering (FY19: GTV $135m vs eBay Australia at $4-5b) driving ~80% of growth,"
= well it is possible I suppose. I joined back in 2006 when we all did, buying a few cute nick knacks for $5. Which I can get at any $2 store or on wish.com. I can't say I've bought any since. Its sh!tty stuff no one wanted that's how they have it. I do't think their model is to be stuck with stock so that shouldn't be an issue. Frankly I can't understand how the margin is so small, what are their overheads?

VALUATION
Okay say I'll split current and projected EBIT and lets say $13m. Now this is a growth company so what...20 times? So $360m. Add $100m of cash and its what...$400m on the downside val, leave a bit of fat in to keep it tight?

>The company is expected to seek to raise more than $100 million for about a $200 million to $300 million market value
= "about"? Ah yeah, right, so they have no idea basically.

SUMMARY

*Premature, 13 year old mature business operating on razor thin margins, selling sh!t no one needs, will sit on another pile of cash where cash in the past didn't help, actually with history of failed bolt on and acquisition
* IMO within 2 years this will be rebirthed as something else related to it being a database and nothing else
* Kogan is their inspiration in chief. It going from what...$2 to $1.30 then 1 year later driving up to $10- somehow.
* If the market decides Kogan has hit its floor then this could go up, if the market is sour on Kogan then they should pull the IPO
* I see this as half way between the 2, and if you do a 1 year chart comparison on TRS and KGN well, I find that interesting.
* I wouldn't be long Kogan right now. Heck, even throw in JBH.
* If JBH and KGN have any downgrades before Christmas, I wouldn't be surprised if they pull this float
* I would like to understand why they did not do this 2 years ago and why the PE VCs behind this are not putting their own money into it themselves to float in 1 year
* I'll avoid and be poised to come in maybe 40%-50% down if market in this sector has bottomed

GLTAH, DYOR

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I appreciate your work here greatly.

I'd also point to Amazon currently doing a trial period through Australia Posts distribution network. The last year in my Distrib Centre with 100+ postal rounds, we tend to see 1 to 3 Amazon parcels a day.
We high priority these above even 'Express Post' services and input them into the final delivery system under strict diligence as Australia Post naively believes they can secure a long term contract.
Amazon is undoubtedly just collecting data and building its network competitiveness during this period, while AusPost bends to its will.

I believe in time, Amazon will have it's own distribution network here.
Conversely, I can't see Catch Group ever securing a trial with Auspost to gain the market insights that Amazon has and hence on a final stage distribution assessment, CG won't be able to compete long term in securing its products arrive in a more timely manner.

Cheers