catching falling knives

Everyone seems to be quoting analysts rather than doing original research. To be honest most analysts wouldn't be spending much time on ELD.
ELD last year faced 2 key issues: 1. Gearing/Financial Debt Levels
2. Operational
Whilst ELD have raised money & reduced the gearing level to about 36% they still have net debt of $378.7m (refer March Half Yearly) given they currently have a market capitalization of around $197m the overall value when debt is allowed for is producing very poor returns to its owners.
If ELD is to change this situation they need to address the operational issues of the business.
Currently ELD operate across a number of businesses. I believe ELD needs to make should hard decisions like what businesses do they wish to continue, then how these businesses will be operated.
Many posters on HC are quoting good seasons etc, but bear in mind this so called good season has yet to see any crops harvested & hence flow of revenue to both the farmers & ELD. As a rural property owner I am hearing things are still very tough in the bush despite some good rains. Remember many farmers have suffered years of drought & any windfall year will only see them pay down some of their accumulated debts from the bad times. Farmers need several good seasons before they regain their confidence to expand & buy additional rural products.
At present I personally don't believe ELD is good value as an investment even bearing in mind it may bounce a little after the tax selling period has ended on June 30th. I suspect the selling may be mainly coming from the institutions who would be fed up with ELD underperforming & end up with the Moms & Dads investors i.e. CNP style dumping. It takes a long time for all this stock to be locked down by investors & in the immediate future ELD will become a bit of a day traders toy.
Given I believe ELD needs to address its operational issues, I personally would wait until their financial reports reflected these issues had been addressed. Yes, you could pay a little more for ELD after this event but you operate with more certainty.
Given the nature of the businesses ELD operate in, I personally believe there are better more certain businesses than ELD.
Please not no investment advice is given the above post is only my personal view on ELD.
Regards
Buffett