Speculation that it is based on the assumptions that new supply renders profitability of the mine inadequate to keep in operation. There is plenty of resource there.
This would need to assume that the OPEX increases as the mine is deepend and that the price of spod plummets with a huge injection of supply.
The most conservative figures of projected OPEX and spod pricing I've seen indicate to me that the mine would continue to be profitable beyond 2.5 years. There simply isn't enough supply coming online in that time to affect the pricing that much IMO.
I would expect the price to increase as the gap between supply and demand deepens. Actually I think you would only really be considering supply from competitors because if the shortfall demand were met by your own mine improvements/ expansions you would still charge the higher price for your product. You really only need to worry about pricing if the competition fully meets demand. Place your bets if/when that will happen.
I've had conversations with people I trust in NSW transport whi say they feel that EVs will find their way into their public transport service network closer to 5 years than 10. Although not intrinsically game changing in scale the potential meter indication to me is that there is a global trend which they actually think is inevitable. And that's from within the conservative party room.
I'm pretty sure my sentiments will either be 'hold' or 'buy' for a while yet.
I may have digressed a little there. I hope this perspective helps.
