Look for 5 yr old Grey stallion. The 5 yr old has won the Italian derby - hopefully it will be a genuine race with a fast pace. He doesn't mind a soft to hard track but dislies heavy tracks. His usual distance is around 2000 - 2400m and has never ran over 2 miles, but I've backed him again (more than once) for both Cups EW.
For me 16/1 looks pretty good for The Melb. Cup, although he was 75/1 only 8 weeks ago (as it wasn't sure he was coming). The horse always tries very hard but takes a while to wind up and I think he will be very close as his class, on form, is impeccable in contrast to some of the other donkeys. The more I look at the others, the more I believe this one, barring bad luck, will either win or run in the first three, especially drawn at 11 with Oliver on board.
Current odds:
$9.2W $3.4P
Interesting stat: only 5 out of t he last 20 winners of the Caul. Cup were 10/1 or more.
