2015 Caulfield Cup – Let’s play the history game to find the winner
Tom Walter - 15 Oct 2015
History can be a strong guide for a race like the Caulfield Cup and this year we have narrowed the race down to a first four.
The conditions of the Caulfield Cup have remained much the same throughout its history and as a result significant patterns have arisen which can assist in identifying the contenders from the pretenders.
Below is a table listing the last 20 winners of the Caulfield Cup, their age and barrier and their previous two starts.
First and foremost, form is crucial in analysing a Caulfield Cup runner’s credentials.
Column 1 Column 2 Column 3 Column 4 Column 5 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 Matamata Cup NZ (1600m) – 3rd 15 16 17 18 19 20
Of the last 20 Caulfield Cup winners, 19 either won or placed at their previous two starts. So the pen goes through Protectionist, Who Shot Thebarman, Grand Marshal, Volkstok’n’barrell, Lucia Valentina, Magicool, and Gust Of Wind.
On an age basis, we can cull any southern hemisphere galloper older than six as there have been no local Caulfield Cup winners beyond that age since 1983. Allowing an extra year for northern hemisphere gallopers we can take out those older than seven. So it’s goodbye to Who Shot Thebarman and Hokko Brave.
Barrier one has the longest losing streak, ruling out Fame Game, while only two winners have jumped from wider than barrier 13 in the past 23 years. If the emergencies don’t gain a start the following horses can be taken out – Royal Descent and Magnapal.
Only one horse, Might And Power raced over less than 2000 metres in its final lead up over the past 21 years so that stat gets rid of Dibayani.
Every local winner in the last 21 years has come through either the Turnbull Stakes, Caulfield Stakes, or The Metropolitan, except for Might And Power and Master O’Reilly so we’ll rule out Our Ivanhowe, Hauraki and Complacent.
In the last 32 years, of the 16 four-year-old winners only one has carried more than 54.5kg to victory – Sky Heights in 1999. So we are going to eliminate the favourite Mongolian Khan on that basis.
This leaves us with a first four of Snow Sky, Trip To Paris, Rising Romance, and Set Square.
Note that two of the emergencies – Quest For More and Magic Hurricane also made the cut.
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Tom Walter is a member of one of Australian racing’s most respected families being a nephew of the late Guy Walter and a son of syndicator Jamie Walter of Proven Thoroughbreds. Tom joined the Racenet team in 2013 as a part-time employee but quickly established himself as a young writer with talent... read more
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