Cannot argue with what you say. It will be true.
The big question is when. All this takes time. Look at Lynas in Texas this was supposed to be a fairly small HREE facility. Announced in 2019. Original schedule was Testing in 2022 production 2023. It is now mid 2025 and they still do not have all the needed permits to start construction. I am not saying everything will be as bad as this, but it does make you wonder.
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The question is simple after 40 years is the solution a non REE based one? Induction motors are just a little heavier and this could be fixed in a few years. They will always be a couple of % less efficient because of rotor loses. In an EV that is becoming less significant with battery advances. Remember Tesla used only induction motos till 2017 model 3. The tech is well understood. Induction is great for EV's and Wind which would lower demand substantially. Other applications like Military and hand tools would be harder.
FeN Magnets can be made anywhere. Nitrogen is about 70% of our atmosphere and Iron is easily available. China imports it from AU. FeN has the following advantages and a one disadvantages.
- 50% higher field strength.
- Lower cost
- Lighter . FeNdB are slightly heavier than IRON FeN slightly lighter. Not an important difference.
- Higher operating temperature. about 50 Degrees C compared with Magnets with Dy or TB.
- Small environmental impact.
- They do demagnetize faster when exposed to strong reverse magnetic field. Work is still needed on this. Right now Just have to control reverse field strength. Very doable but limits peek HP. Nd magnets have same problem but at much higher field strength.
FeN. Up till recently they could only be made in powdered form. The epoxy to bind them decreased their field strength just like it does with bounded Nd Magnets. In US NIRON has a small pilot plant and has a small commercial plant almost completed for sintered products, finished in 2026, We should see sintered products in many small applications like hearing aids and audio speakers in 2026. It surely will take years for this technology to have volume needed for Cars Wind and tools. In the meantime, I am sure the military and a few other critical application will use it successfully. Once China sees this progressing I am sure they will flood the market with Nd based products to slow the FeN progress just like they did 15 years ago when the embargo started having a negative effect on Nd Magnets and resulted in people starting to open many new sources for REE. Take a look at Lynas stock chart from that period Split adjusted SP went from over AU$ 24, Mid 2011 to $0.32 mid 2015 and did not go back over $5.00 till 2021. This is even more dramatic when you look at the fact that in 2011 an AU$ was worth USD1.06 Today about $0.65. LYSCF went from US$26 to $0.20 during same periods. `
Here is Niron's web site.
Niron MagneticsA quick google search will bring up pages of articles. I do not have a favorite. Totally agree. I have seen many stock do this in my investment history. I use to jump in and ride them. Have stopped doing it now. If earning does not justify stock price I stay away. Still think Lynas has great potential maybe in a year more likly 2. Needed changes will be easy to see for those who watch. It is simple when will revenue go up. Revenue = Price X volume.
In no way am I saying Lynas will ever drop to this price but right now earnings does not even justify a A$1.00 price. This is especially true when you consider the drop in earning from A$541M in 2022 to probably < $25 in 2025.
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