Well I am not sure how to add anything to webspydas deep thought provoking post but I will try :)
I saw a Harvey Norman advert yesterday...buy now on no deposit, no interest and no repayments until 2010 ! I don't know how many of these advertised contracts they actually make with customers but if this is how a lot of business is now being done then IMO some kind of financial collapse is imminent. All it takes is a recession and as repayments fall due and are not made suddenly there is a mountain of unservicable debt.
I don't expect things to fall over too badly though as China will keep growing just to satisfy it's own internal demand. Sales to the US declining will not matter much as China has mountains of foreign reserves and a growing domestic economy with a billion consumers.
I do expect a small recession in Australia next year though as things have been too good for too long and need to correct.
