South Africa is now (as Russian exports to the EU are banned) the biggest exporter of thermal coal to the the EU- but South Africa is having power blackouts (due to lack of thermal coal power station maintenance, corruption etc.) throughout the country of c. 16 hours per day, nearly every day.
Some experts are predicting that South Africa, with its massive crime problems & widespread corruption, could eventually become a "failed state", or a "gangster state". I assume these "intractible" & constant power backouts may ultimately lead to a decline in its coal exports- this will help to, eventually, raise significantly the thermal coal price.
bbc. A Harding 24.5.23 said
"South Africa is heading into the southern hemisphere winter with the prospect of the country's worst-ever power cuts - up to 16 hours a day. The roots of the problem lie in poor management, corruption and sabotage".
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