The other compelling thesis I've seen is that the primary goal...

The other compelling thesis I've seen is that the primary goal of locking down is to pressure Xi's rivals in the form of the more business/enterprise-heavy Shanghai Gang. That thesis would probably predict a gradual opening up of the country now that the Congress is complete, which is a nice falsifiable prediction on a probably 3-6 month timescale. Of course, this is not incompatible with the "it's to starve the west's economy" thesis or the simple face-value "Chinese society's view on the benefits of Covid-zero vs opening up, & capacity of Chinese healthcare system relative to its population, are different from that of the west" thesis.

With that said, I'm not anything remotely close to either a China expert or a geopolitics expert, so I don't generally want predictions like this having more than a small informative/qualitative effect on my investing decisions... But it's a narrative I'm keeping half an eye on to see how it plays out. Maybe @didicoco would have a more informed opinion on the topic.