Wise advice Reggie, I'm sure many of us in the O&G sphere have experienced our share of hype and subsequent
dusters- I certainly have. So many in fact that I sold half my stake in FAR prior to this discovery. Average price was
4.7c for my holding prior to off-loading half a few weeks back. However, I bought more yesterday at the re-trace
to 12.5c and more again today at the same price. If it gets anywhere near the 10-11c mark I will gladly load up
again.
You are correct, the find has not been proven as commercial, yet. But what do we know thus far?
1. Oil is medium to light, NOT heavy. Good start, heavy oil would have knocked this find dead at the start.
2. OIP estimated to be in line with pre-drill estimates. P90 250m, P50 950m, P10 2.5B.
3. IF we can prove up the P50 at 30% recovery then NET to FAR is approx 45m boo. At $5 a barrel in
ground = $225m. Far's MC @12c today is 300m {less 20m cash}. 75m attributed to the remaining
drill at SNE, Kenya acreage and other assets in portfolio. Fairly priced I would think on what we know now.
4. No water contact reported.
5. Another short term potential catalyst on the way {SNE which is already half drilled}. 16km's from FAN1.
6. A substantial holder in FARJOY accumulating aggressively pre & POST drill.
I see no issue with API of oil reported and no water contact which will bode well for attempts at recovery
and hence commerciality. The only question remaining {and it is a big one of course} is the porosity and
integrity of the reservoir. I guess that is where the punt is from here, crappy reservoir and back down to
5c probably {barring news of Kenya farm-out and SNE preliminary results}. Good reservoir and P50 even
increased then 20-25c for mine.
Each to their own but I off-loaded half my stake prior to the find. That to me is ALWAYS the riskiest
part- probably 15-20 dusters per gusher, REGARDLESS of how good the seismics and hype are
prior to drilling. Now, if you can tick that 15-20/1 against box, then how many discoveries prove
eventually to be un- commercial? I would venture a lot less than 15/1. The risk is still there
for sure, but I prefer the odds of proving up commerciality v finding the god damn stuff from the start.
When the initial results came back a month back saying they had recovered oil samples from
"thin" sands in the secondary target, I was more than happy. We had found SOMETHING, the risk
was that that was all there was in this hole, but it would give hope for the SNE drill up-dip from FAN1.
Well, that wasn't all there was and the rest is history. I also said that HOPE is a great thing in the O&G
caper, the great majority of explorers can peddle only just that. HOPE based on nearology, great 3D seismics,
hype etc etc.Not many can turn hope into reality.
We have oil, we have light to medium oil, we have no water contact. I HOPE the reservoir can deliver
good integrity and porosity. I much prefer the odds of proving commerciality v finding the stuff in the
1st place. And at a SP of only 20% higher than pre-ann, I like those odds too.
GLTAH
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