caylus commits - thursday, page-29

In America:

Dow Industrials -1.61%
Dow Transports -2.88%
SP500 -2.07%
Russell 2000 -4.15%
Nasdaq100 -1.45%

Comment: Once again the Dow Industrials tested the 34-Day Moving Average (blue dotted line) and failed. Volume was on the low side – lower than the three previous days. So, there’s not much interest in the market and it fell under its own weight. Breadth (Russell2000) was very poor. Not a good sign.

NewHighs/NewLows 8/102. That’s back to panic selling levels.

The Materials Sector -4.42% and Energy Sector -3.27%. Commodities have been the big weakness in international markets recently. That issue is continuing. Those figures are not positive for the Australian market today. All nine S&P Sectors were down. The worst was the Materials. The Banking Index was down, -3.45%. Semi-conductors down, -2.91%.

Europe:
France -0.92%
Germany -0.89%
London -1.44%

Gold in U.S. Dollars is down -2.79%. Gold in Oz Dollars is down -1.24%. AUD/USD down, -0.95% to finish at 98.27. The Ozzie is above minor support at 97. EWA (the ETF for Australian shares) down -2.68%

Technical Comment on the SP500:
The DJIA finished at 11010.9. At support around 11000
Below the 8-Day MA. Positive.
Below the 34-Day MA. Negative.
Indicators:
* Stochastic: 50.9. Above its signal line. Positive
* The 8-Day MA is below the 34-Day MA. Negative
* The 13-Day MA is below the 150-Day MA. Long-term negative.
* RSI.9 is at 44.8. Back below 50. Negative.
* MACD Histogram at Zero. Neutral.
* MACD (zero lag) at zero. Neutral.
* CCI.9: -14.8. Negative.

Chart Pattern:
The market continues the pattern of mid-August. (That's getting into late August now.) With the Index sitting on support it seems critical that tomorrow follows the pattern of an up-day. A down day will take the index below support and the indicators will turn uniformly bearish.

I still won’t be happy with this market until I see a positive 8/34 x-over.

The Dow is in a medium term sideways consolidation sitting between 10700 and 11700. These can break either way.

Don’t pre-empt the market. DYOR.

Good luck
Redbacka