CBA to drop to $45 ... 50% down from its $90 highs in Dec., but not until Q3 /2020 to Q1/2021
Docherty is sitting on about $6b is "surplus" capital - meaning he is running a capital reserve about $6b more than APRA's min.
Why... quick analysis - nationally about 400,000 home loans currently "non-performing" : borrowers have requested deferrals on payments - most will be repaid / refinanced well before maturity so why not defer - all you are doing is extending term of a loan you never intend to run full term....
However - about 10% will default: average home loan in Australia is about $390,000 - 40,000 x $390,000... around $15.5billion
Of these CBA will hold about 35% - about $5.5b anticipated defaults - about the amount of "surplus" capital being retained by Docherty .....
CBA average loan / asset ratio about 50% - so looking at a $2.5b to $3b loan book write off : the balance "surplus" capital will be needed to support small business loan defaults...
As default ratios start to escalate, reflect in the share price. CBA will take the write downs onto B/Sheet and the claim against tax losses C/forward when recoveries are made.
My expectation $45 somewhere Q3 /2020 to Q1/2021 - buy opportunity... not sure where the top will be on the rise but certainly current market balance at $60 reasonable...
CBA back to $45-50 again soon?, page-11
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Last
$115.23 |
Change
0.230(0.20%) |
Mkt cap ! $192.8B | |||
| Open | High | Low | Value | Volume |
| $115.76 | $115.76 | $114.74 | $139.6M | 1.212M |
Buyers (Bids)
| No. | Vol. | Price($) |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 10 | $115.05 |
Sellers (Offers)
| Price($) | Vol. | No. |
|---|---|---|
| $115.25 | 105 | 1 |
View Market Depth
| Last trade - 16.10pm 03/05/2024 (20 minute delay) ? |
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Last
$115.15 |
Change
0.230 ( 0.07 %) |
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| Open | High | Low | Volume | ||
| $115.54 | $115.73 | $114.75 | 327116 | ||
| Last updated 15.59pm 03/05/2024 ? | |||||
| CBA (ASX) Chart |