Given its balance sheet is well capitalized the expectation by...

Given its balance sheet is well capitalized the expectation by all is that excess capital will be offloaded to shareholders. CBA's most recent Basel III update has 12.7% tier one capital with a total RWA of 446,657B. By comparison ANZ Is 11.7%, & the benchmark is 10.5%. With a balance sheet of its RWA 446,657 billion, 1% is 4.5 billion. That's not even counting the 400m cash received from the sale of its general insurance arm announced about two weeks ago. This seems consistent with Morgan Stanley who say 5 - 5.5 billion will be returned to CBA shareholders, especially when ANZ are also expected to return capital - CBA will be able to return more than 1% of their RWA.

https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/australian-banks-led-by-cba-set-return-record-15-bln-cash-investors-2021-06-01/

Also looking at divestments, if your really optimistic you could treat them as loss making discounted operations & assume shedding these divisions will be EPS positive for CBA. The business themselves weren't loss making but they sure brought on headaches and would have taken unexpected resources given the issues they caused. I also like the fact CBA are keeping 45% of CFS - getting half the profits but not having to run it - investments in funds management companies in Australia with our mandated super system are always astute.

So lets say 5 billion is returned & 7.8 billion in assumed dividends, 1280/17689 (current market cap) is a yield of around 7.2% even at share price of $100. Although the capital return is non recurring, and the assumed dividend of 7.8 billion gets you 4.4% yield. The return of capital will lower your cost base which would rise the present yield of 4.4%. & if you indeed subscribe to the notion of a more simple & leaner bank you should assume increased EPS & dividends. So a $100 price is not totally insane but I still think its a little over the top. $90 seems more appropriate

Although I also find it hilarious how brokers have followed the share price, constantly changing their target price in response to the moving price. Morgan's in particular have reassigned fair value from $64 to $73. Are they kidding? $73!!! Its a steal at $80 let alone fair value at $73.