I don't care what analysts think, they're more useless than...

I don't care what analysts think, they're more useless than monkeys throwing darts on a dart board. These are highly paid suits who have absolutely no vested interest or stake in getting their calls right.

My "analysis" is based on my simple understanding of how the economy works:
*The government wants more immigration to create more demand for goods and services
*Every immigrant that comes to Australia needs a few fundamental things financially: a bank account, credit card, car loan, home loan and a brokerage account. And often also business loans/investment loans. At the outset, banks have consumers captured and cornered for life
*The government will NEVER ever let the banking system fail, because for it to do so means catastrophic consequences for public order
*Banks usually employ the smartest people in their markets, people who are in the business of inventing ways to make more money

But it all starts with immigration. When you have immigration - and higher immigration targets as we're seeing now - there is only one way for bank stocks long-term, and it's not $85 in CBA's case (at least pending a market crash). This bank is the best of the bunch as well, the best management, marketing, technology, the speed at which it disburses home loans etc. This is proven by it's resilient dividend and share price growth compared to peers, who despite being given a lifeline of free money (via immigration) just can't seem to get the basics right.

If I was to pick 2 banks in the world, I'd put CBA at #1 and Bank of Montreal at #2.

You raise a valid point regarding the bear case. In my opinion the only logical bear case that causes a serious SP tanking is:
*RBA raises rates *MUCH* more aggressively than expected
*The government stops breast feeding the population, at least for a moment, and lets people lose their jobs and homes
*CBA aggressively increases provisions and is harder hit due to its relatively bigger retail exposure
*CBA raises equity at a discount during market stress

That is there, but at the same time there are many many many Australians loaded with cash up to their eyeballs ready to support demand if house prices fell another 20-30%, but by that stage the politicians and their wives will be panicking so much that they'll unleash World War 3 stimulus to keep Sydney house prices above $1 million, whatever it takes.

In my opinion by waiting, you'll be paying up in lost dividend payments but totally your call, I'd suggest accumulating this stock after falls like it recently had. Buy more today. If it gets to $85, buy more then!