April 3-4, 2025 — Deployed AUD 115,000 to purchase 40,000 CBAKCQ and AUD 50,000 to buy 440 CBA put options.Entry price range for CBA: AUD 154-156.Rationale: CBA was severely overvalued both technically and fundamentally. The trade war triggered a sharp decline in U.S. stocks, with financial stocks dropping over 20%, yet CBA had not corrected—expecting a significant catch-up drop.
April 7, 2025 — As the trade war worsened, the ASX plunged, and CBA crashed to a low of AUD 140.50.Floating profit: ~AUD 500,000.
April 7-9, 2025 – Trade war tensions escalated further. ANZ, WBC, and NAB remained weak, but CBA showed resilience—gapping down but recovering daily. On April 9, after opening at AUD 145, it quickly rebounded to AUD 149.Sold 2,000 CBAKCQ and added:200 put options expiring April 17, strike AUD 148.100 put options expiring April 10, strike AUD 146.
April 9, 2025 (Night)European markets plummeted over 3% amid worsening trade war conditions. Prepared to exit all positions on April 10.Woke up at 4:30 AM to find U.S. stocks surging 10%—instantly feared the worst.
April 10, 2025No trades executed, all options expired with nil value;
April 11, 2025Planned to reduce CBAKCQ and April 17 puts, but orders failed due to a AUD 0.20 price discrepancy. CBA then rapidly rallied from ~AUD 149 to ~AUD 154.
April 14, 2025Against the trend, added 200 April 17 put options.
April 15, 2025Surrendered and feel exhausted. Closed all CBA short positions.Total loss: over AUD 150,000.
CBA Price at posting:
$158.79 Sentiment: Sell Disclosure: Not Held
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