cba fukushima doesn't stop nuclear renaissance

CANBERRA -(Dow Jones)- The accident at Japan's Fukushima Daiichi nuclear complex, which reignited concerns about the safety of nuclear power worldwide, hasn't stopped the industry's growth plans in many countries, though it has delayed the process, Commonwealth Bank of Australia reported Wednesday.

The Fukushima accident has set back nuclear power expansions in some countries and sparked nuclear shutdowns in others, the bank said. Meanwhile, uranium markets have tilted further toward excess supply in the near term, especially if Japan shuts nuclear capacity permanently, the bank's analysts said.

"But it is a case of one step backward, two steps forward," they said in a review of the sector. "Nuclear growth plans remain intact in China, India, Russia, South Korea, the U.S. and U.K. among others, and dominate the medium- term uranium industry outlook."

Australia is a major global supplier of uranium, along with Canada and Kazakhstan.

Uranium demand will increase by 84%, to 106,181 metric tons in 2020 from 57,610 tons in 2010, they forecast.

Supply-side discipline is critical to market balance to avoid an oversupply in 2020, the bank said.

It forecast the spot price will rise to average of US$88.74 a pound in 2020 from an estimated US$58.11/lb in 2011.

Assuming supplier discipline, any spot price spikes due to supply disruptions or strategic stockpiling, for example, won't last long, at least over the next five years, it said.

Long-term contract prices are forecast to move steadily higher, following upward-trending spot prices and consistent with production increasing and shifting up the industry cost curve, the bank said.

-By Ray Brindal, Dow Jones Newswires; 612 62080902; [email protected]

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