I decided to do a more serious study on the CBA wave count to establish exactly where we are. The following is the result which indicates that CBA is currently in a 5th wave.
Wave 1 $109.94 - $122.55 = $12.61 Wave 2 $122.55 - $116.64=$5.91 (46.9% of wave 1) Wave 1/3 $116.64 - $128.68= $12.04 Wave 2/3 $128.68- $124.35=$4.33 (36% of wave1/3) Wave 3/3 $124.35-$134.25=$9.90 Wave 4/3 $134.25-$130.18=$4.07 (41.1% of wave 3/3) Wave 5/3 $130.18-$138.24=$8.06 Overall Wave 3 $116.64-$138.24= $21.60 (1.71 X wave 1 usually look for 1.618 x wave 1 close enough) Wave 4 $138.24-$124.89=$13.35 (61.8% of wave 3) We are now in wave 5 & looking for its most likely length I suggest the next critical number would be when wave 5 (which has already exceeded 38.2% of the total move) reaches 50% of the total move with a length of $14.95. This will occur at $139.84. The next possibility is 61.8% of the total move is at $149.08 which appears unlikely)
Consequently, if I had to make a prediction based on the above, I will be putting my money on $139.84 which is likely to occur no later than Tuesday.
Note the impulse waves 1,3 & 5 lengths are $12.61, $21.60 & $14.95 making the 3rd the longest as expected. The perfect wave 4 correction of exactly 61.8% ties in beautifully.
Wave 5 is usually Fibonacci related to the total length of the 5 waves & it appears that 50% is the most likely.
Put $139.84 down as a technical top & should occur with the shares going ex-div.
CBA Price at posting:
$137.56 Sentiment: Sell Disclosure: Held
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