Can't rule out a triangle bloke...not uncommon for a 4th as you know. I'm curious at the lack of alternation with wave 2 at this point though?
Today marks day 9 for both formations & depth is also similar...both shallow, sideways moves.
You've got 4 'obvious' touches of the boundaries to date of a typical 5 in a tri with the 5th seemingly imminent but a few complex waves at lower degree could yet bring about an alternation in time with the 2nd.
In summing up...a beak through the lower boundary shouldn't be ruled out...as ugly as that may appear.!
Good luck...& do stick to your own analysis!
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