CBA commonwealth bank of australia.

2.81%

$185.36

As mentioned early last week on XJO bear thread - US banks...

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Launched

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10/03/23

08:39

Post #: 66690958
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Originally posted by Launched: ↑

Hi Anne, that's a difficult question but I'll give my personal opinion.

Fundamentally I think there's some major headwinds on the horizon that have not played out yet.

CBA mentioned some of this in their earnings report with interest rates expected to keep moving north and a global recession expected.

I do not think the market has priced in the real terminal rate and I do think the banks know this is much higher than the market is currently pricing in.

I know that Aussie banks are going out of their way to not lend money as they do think there'll be a problem servicing the debt down the road.

This should come as no surprise if we look at the announcement Wells Fargo came out with recently, which was to say they are basically cutting off their mortgage business.

Take into account that these guys were the 3rd biggest mortgage business in the US, so for them to cut a business which took decades and many millions to build is making quite a statement.

From what I've heard down under banks are expecting rates to go much, much higher...

Anyway, all of that is above my pay grade so I'll tell you what I think on the TA side.

The sell off has been dramatic and conditions are getting into oversold territory now, so a bounce really could come any day.

However, if we look back to last June the current oversold conditions barely seem like they've even started to drop.

I mentioned on the XJO thread earlier in the week that US banks were trading very peculiar Monday and seemed Aussie banks got the memo as they sold off ever since (even though US banks were actually green)

It did look like bears were setting up but anytime the majors are trading around the 200dMA there's always games so really could see an explosive move in either direction.

Down under CBA, NAB, WBC, ANZ have all now lost their 200 - so if the move holds then expect the downside to really heat up.

Been posting on BEN since $10.10 that the downside move was setting up and that's played out to script so far.

CBA itself has a decent support zone from $93-$95.
You'd hope for buyers to come out there but if that fails then look out below as the next big support zone is around $87.

Anyway, I'm waffling on a bit now but to sum up - I'd say banks will come under pressure sooner or later. If US markets don't come back from the major supports in the next session or two then that pressure will come sooner rather than later.

All the best.

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As mentioned early last week on XJO bear thread - US banks looked to be setting up for a significant sell event (that was after a green night across almost all banks)

And significant is what we got - US banks absolutely hammered over night!

Aussie banks may be positioned a little better but expect some contagion...
.

CBA Price at posting: $98.72 Sentiment: None Disclosure: Not Held
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(20min delay)
Last $185.36		Change -5.350(2.81%)		Mkt cap ! $310.1B

Open	High	Low	Value	Volume
$190.50	$191.06	$185.36	$367.6M	1.971M

Buyers (Bids)

No.	Vol.	Price($)
6	4521	$185.36

Sellers (Offers)

Price($)	Vol.	No.
$185.88	70	1

View Market Depth

No.	Vol.	Price($)
1	15	185.360
18	4516	185.000
1	50	184.950
4	383	184.500
1	15	184.400

Price($)	Vol.	No.
185.880	70	1
186.090	50	1
187.000	300	1
187.400	5	1
187.600	58	1

Last trade - 16.11pm 27/06/2025 (20 minute delay)

CBA (ASX) Chart

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