That's a fair call.
I can waffle on a bit and although I have strong opinions it's TA that pays my bills so I'll stick to that.
I mentioned a couple of weeks ago that losing the 200dMA and more importantly the 2yr POC was not a good sign for CBA.
So far that's been shown to be true and considering price backtested that all important POC level and failed that's not great.
Obviously Friday nights action in the US is fairly negative but not much can do about that except play whats in front of us.
Volumes are important and CBA always plays them well as insto positioning is heavy here.
This is illustrated by the break and backtest on the POC around $99.50 and then Fridays close which was right on the VAL (Value Area Low) - highlighted by the stronger coloured bars on the right).
If all the negativity overcomes the asx tomorrow morning then I'd expect a test around the low $93's - that level is really important as it not only has the lower line of support it also is last major volume level.
If this level were to break then things could escalate quite quickly as there is barely any insto positioning below - there is minor support around $91 and again $87.50.
If that low $93 zone does provide a bounce or the market gets some welcome bullish news while we sleep then MMs can really have some fun as theres a bit of a volume void from Fridays close back to $97.80 - this would be an easy short burn if this was the way markets played.
Obviously the RSI is getting to extremes now so a bounce is quite possible near term but RSIs will make little difference if the news on Monday hasn't brightened up.
When the bounce does come expect it to be rapid and expect it to be vicious but what I'll be watching is how it bounces and where the bounce takes us.
The $99.50 level on CBA is so important to watch if CBA/banks/markets do bounce.
If the bounce only gets to that level then fails, I'd say bears could be about to start a new leg down.
If price can break back through and hold then bulls might just be in luck.
Obviously if things go really south then that lower support zone around $93 will likely become resistance so watch trading there over coming days/weeks.
CBA daily
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If you're still unsure about volumes or how shorts closing may differ from longs taking positions then let's look at JPM on Friday.
It closed green and markets cheered but on further inspection it's certainly not a buy signal for me
But it closed 2.54% up, so isn't that good???
Short answer, no.
(pardon the pun)
Theres two things that stand out to me on the chart
Firstly, it tested that all important POC level and failed - not great
Secondly, you'll notice that the close was below every single session traded this year - not great either.
Could the bottom be in?
Of course it could but going off what the chart is saying theres only shorts closing there and not meaningful longs.
If you're a gambler then you could take a punt and try to catch the bounce and hope it follows through but I'd rather wait for confirmation before any entries below those key levels.
I did notice Cramer calling JPM a 'fortress' on Friday night which doesn't bode well either.
(considering he was recommending SIVB a month ago he's not the best tipster)
JPM daily
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Once again I'm waffling on, so I'll summarise.
CBA important levels
Above - $97.80, $99.50, $100.61
Below - $93.20, $90.80, $87.50
Fridays close of $95.51 is also significant
All eyes on Fed meeting Monday 11:30am (US time) and obviously how those regional banks open just prior to that.
SCHW does look to be in trouble if a bank run happens and that will definitely force the governments hand.
In the mean time trade safe, stay nimble and good luck whichever way you trade...
(20min delay)