i think the only reason cba should go down more is if management...

i think the only reason cba should go down more is if management hasnt been adjusting the business over time for the changing economic climate. from memory its already been noted that they are behind the curve correcting the difference between the blowout in the overnight cash rate and their previous minimum interest rate assumptions for new mortgages. so some stress could appear there if lending hasnt been prudent. in addition, another thing the market doesnt know is the total decline in value from an aggregate of pockets of the cba business that have been and are being hit by interest rate sensitivity. i remember talking with you a few months back about index weaknes stemming from financial sector weakness given its the biggest component of the xjo.

however, a big tailwind for cba, imo especially while falling precipitously, is downaward presure on interest rates. i think most recent developments could be a canary in the coal mine that interest rates have peaked, not necessarily that there is foolishness right across the financial sector. in a way, thank the stock gods for the gfc as that would have hardened the financial strength of major institutions. good things happen from what is happening right now, such as the cleansing of everything crap. that type of cleanse imo will be very bullish for the stock market. question is when does that happen and whats the right price and asset class for that.

the key for the financial sector will be knowing what the natural interest rate is (around the 4.5% us cash rate for now?) and preparation for business activity under those settings. right now as invetors discount this into the cba sp, it creates uncertainty and as such opportunity. so idk, it could fall further but thats why a trader always has spare capital to deploy and use it in the way that you can lower your average without significantly increasing exposure as a percentage of your available liquidity.

so in other words, trade the trade and buyer beware lol