TA Update
Seems the bank sector has once more come under pressure and the central banks haven't helped with both the Fed and the RBA raising once more.
For those that think rate cuts are coming I'm sorry to inform you that they won't be happening this year - unless of course something breaks and atm it seems like the bank sector is most likely - so not ideal if you're long banks.
In the last post, when CBA was trading around $99 I mentioned to watch for a reaction off $101.20 (see 15min chart in previous post).
Turned out that CBA peaked a mere 11c above this price - at $101.31.
However this was OPEX day and a few games were being played leading into close, so the pop was a little overcooked with a few naughty shorters getting caught out.
The run up to that peak was a classic rising wedge (bearish) pattern and CBA has since broken down from that with the closest backtest being the stitch up just prior to the RBA dropping that unexpected 25bps bomb - turned out to be a great time to add to short positions
The breakdown has since gathered momentum with Fed adding to rates and Pacwest fueling more banking uncertainty just a short time ago so I'd expect the pressure to remain on banks.
CBA has dropped into a volume void now with the nearest supporting volume shelf around $97.17.
However the POC from the consolidation zone from the second half of March is around $96.26 - so I'd expect a test on this price if sellers maintain pressure.
You can see CBA gave up its 50dMA yesterday as well - it's currently at $98.46, so if theres an upside move this is a price to watch.
However I'd be more inclined to watch $99.25 as that's where heavy volume steps back in.
Speaking of volume, yesterday was the day that CBA gave up it's 12mth POC (that's important) - this sits just below $100.
Whilst trading remains below this level bears are well in control.
CBA Daily
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Aussie banks are better placed than their American counterparts but just like the GFC, money flows and sector sentiment matter - A LOT.
Watching BNKU of late and just like CBA has been in a bearish consolidation range - yet unlike CBA it was a sideways consolidation.
That range and POC has now broken to the downside well and truly.
And just like CBA - momentum indicators have turned bearish.
So unless BNKU can break back above $15.50 banks are most likely going to remain under pressure.
BNKU Daily
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Thats about it for me.
Hopefully you've all been on the right side of trades of late
Anyway, play safe, stay nimble and good luck whichever way you trade...
(20min delay)