CBA TA UpdateBeen a little while since visiting the TA thread...

CBA TA Update

Been a little while since visiting the TA thread but thought I'd jump back in as there has been some interesting developments on CBA.

Market Makers are very very good at hiding directional trades intra day however I do find MMs do have preferred set ups for accumulation/distribution and it does look as if CBA is setting up for another H & S (potential) breakdown.

We saw this play out in Q4 22 as outlined HERE

*Can see BEN MMs love an ascending wedge/triangle as they've used as a key distribution pattern numerous times over the past 6mths on numerous timeframes (I've posted a couple of set ups in BEN thread but traded more). Heres one

Looking at the 2hr chart and you can see a similar pattern to Q4 playing out with some very important levels hitting and rejecting.
Thursday did test the neckline and bounce (which is good for bulls)
However Fridays close was not ideal, setting up yet another test coming into the week ahead

CBA 2hr chart

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Staying with the 2hr chart you can see the main levels of accumulation/distribution for the 3 main ranges.
The unsettling thing (for bulls) was the rejection from the POC for the middle consolidation zone (head) at $99.44 toward the end of May.
There is also another huge volume level in that same area; the 3yr POC, which now sits around $99.70
You can see in previous posts I outlined this level as important but has obviously moved up slightly after the big distribution before the banking crisis.
The recent rejection up here is not something I'd want to see if I was long, however if price can break back above here and hold then it's game on for bulls but I'd be focused more on that $96.82 right shoulder level ST.

CBA 2hr chart

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Now lets zoom out a little to the daily so we can see that 3yr POC clearer.
Another obvious point of resistance is where the HVNs step in around the same place as the 50dMA at $98.38.

CBA Daily


Now lets zoom right out and look at some longer term levels.
There were some levels marked on the daily that will now make sense when looking at the weekly chart.
Everyone is entitled to their own opinion and my own opinion is that red box outlined below will hit by mid Sept.

Upper edge at $89.49 is the weekly 200MA and also coincides with the low in Oct 22.
The $86.98 level is the coincides with the June 22 low and also is where longer term HVNs step in - my personal opinion is this level will hit (minimum) by mid Sept
However, I'm more inclined to think $82.50 is a more realistic target with proper volume only stepping in here.

I don't think the 10yr POC at $74 will hit in that timeframe but I do believe that level will hit before CBA turns the MT trend back around.

Profit margins getting squeezed, distressed mortgage holders and a recession coming (as flagged by CBA in last report) will not be great for most banks and I think the Aug earnings may hammer this home.
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I know that most that read the forum are long holders, so I imagine my views will once again be unpopular but they are exactly that, my own views, you are all entitled to yours.
Mine have paid pretty well over the past 6mths on CBA but as we all know, past results do not dictate future results.
So happy to hear all views on CBAs near future

As always trade safe, be sure to DYOR and good luck which ever way you trade...