You might be overcooking this a bit.... looks to me like a straightforward "pump" to get the share price up to 102 for end-fin-yr valuations / just a view - look at the activity on the CBA buy-back programme and the acceleration is buying 13th - 19th June...
Overall though - agree with yr positioning - liquidity pressures on the US banks as (US) M2 compressed / "quant easing" is unwound ... Australian banks under pressure as under-performings accelerate against a backdrop of significant household debt over-leverage
We'll see what happens
I'm expecting a return to the 3-month mean - meaning we'll see either side of 98.00 in July / if we break below this, time to have another look / 96.00 looks like a key number to me, then 95.00 them 93.00 being the bottom March 2023 after the drop from 111.00.... how about that - a 16% drop 3rd Feb to 13th March..... 16% in 26 trading days.....
Here's the buyback figures - look at the acceleration 13th - 19th June..
| 1 | | 13th June 2023 | A,109,761 |
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| 2 | 14th June 2023 | A$22,904,792 |
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| 3 | 15th June 2023 | A$26,789,455 |
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| 4 | 16th June 2023 | A$40,706,187 |
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| 5 | 19th June | A$60,132,840 |
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(20min delay)