Looks like shorts and longs both been stitched up lately.
In the last month CBA has had a break out, a failed breakout, another breakout and now what looks to be another failed breakout.
*However with weekly opex it can make it difficult to get a read on closing prices so nothing would surprise me tomorrow.
Below is CBA daily chart since it's consolidated into a wedge like pattern.
You can see the recent shenanigans around resistance/support.
For reference $99.70 is the VPOC for the past 2 yrs (basically the most traded price - so it's important)
CBA daily
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From here lets take an unbiased view of whats above and below.
Firstly, lets look above.
If the sp can once more breakout then bulls may be back in favour.
The level above is significant as the 200dMA is just above also (currently at $101.24)
If we look back at the last consolidation zone from the middle of October 22 (when the sp broke above $99.70 VPOC) to the 'earnings dump'.
We can see the VPOC for this zone was $105.75.
Since it's safe to assume that this consolidation was for accumulating short positions then this price is very significant if the sp was to revisit.
If the sp can break north of $105.75 then we can also assume that those short positions no longer exist or need to be defended.
If the sp cannot break then we can assume that short is still the flavour for anything above $105.75 - as can see when price retested on earnings dump day...
In summary for longs
- break back above resistance and 200dMA good
- break back above $105.75 very good
Now to look below.
Obviously that VPOC at $99.70 is important and the POC since the earnings dump is around $99.32, so this zone is important to take out.
Just below that the 50dMA and 100dMA are currently at $98.60 and $98.80 - some support for algo chop there.
Lower support (which has already had 3 contacts) is mid $96's
If these get taken out then it is pretty clear sailing to the low that happened around this time last year $86.98
Summary for shorts
- maintain latest breakdown and take out VPOC levels
- break below 50 and 100dMA
- take out lower support mid $96's
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US banks begin earnings season next week and CBA is in about a month so there's a few catalysts but it's certainly a tough market to pick so be careful out there.
Play safe and good luck whichever way you trade...
(20min delay)