I think CBs waited way too long to do anything about inflation...

I think CBs waited way too long to do anything about inflation and now whatever they decide on rates will hurt the market.

If they pause now then inflation will come roaring back and that spells trouble.

If they push higher now then they well and truly break banks.

People are questioning whether this is akin to the GFC?

Looking at the nuts and bolts and there's obvious differences but I just want to know how things trade around events like this.

Most traders/investors manage time poorly and what I mean by that is they believe every move should happen when an event starts but patience usually pays as smart money don't do things in a sprint (but when they do you know you're already f$cked cause they are well and truly set).

My take from the GFC was initial volatility but no major move.

If we trade the same here then expect an event like CPI tonight (could be something else) to give market participants hope.

Let a few green days, perhaps weeks, pass and let the masses think everything is normal, all the while smart money is setting up for the real move.

Will this happen this time?

I have no idea but I trade probabilities and I know that major moves happen so seldomly that you're better to lock in profits than to go for the hailmary play every time.

For that reason I just closed June puts on CBA.

On Sunday night I mentioned the next price down to watch was $93.20

Price just hit the $93.30's and that was close enough for me as that was a few more bags locked in.

The chance for a bounce here is very real but like I said, volume is very thin below, so if $93 fails it could escalate quickly.

All the best mate...