Hi Slick.
The growing volumes always required the megaline to achieve the required capacity and the efficiencies this increased production would bring. You should know this. Why will the production costs not lower with the megaline? Why will increasing the manufacturing economies of scale via proven automation not lower the per unit cost? There is a tipping point when volumes no longer impact fixed costs and the impact of variable costs is optimised. Is there something about this process of commissioning of this project that you feel has been less than transparent from the company?
Also, the increasing programs (which we can assume will be ‘likely’ approved due to current quality and performance of existing programs) will increase these wheel volumes Slick and they also to a certain extant validate the efficacy of the product and Carbon’s operation. I am uncertain what you have been looking for in the ‘dot points’ since the IPO but the investment thesis is forward looking. As far as I KNOW - this is the case of every investment thesis. Looking forward will allow one to understand whether the impacts of COVID were systemic failures to Carbons business model - or just one-off impacts to the automotive supply chain that have effected the whole industry. We obviously see things differently here.
Slick - all in all - the story of Carbon up until now has been ‘proof of concept’, to operational and commercial viability, and now we are heading into the manufacturing scale of this ‘proof of concept and viability’.
I am really interested in a little more granularity of why you think they will not succeed. Bringing up their COVID experience, their current cash-flow, or their current per-wheel cost does not inform me of why they will fail with their plan moving forward. Do you think there is a market for these wheels? Why are their currently 9 OEM programs on-foot? What is your view of the megaline?
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