ccc growth projections, page-54

I havent posted for a while due to there being nothing at all to talk about.

Little things I would like to mention.

The EV is a great way of looking at this as once you work out a potential EV you can see how much or how little dilution would hurt you.

I would be shocked if we got funding in any form bar C/N's, this is still debt funding but it generally has some form of dilution involved. I could be wrong but generally have a good feel for this.

For that reason, I try to look at worst case scenario barring completely unpredictable black swan events.

Lets say we cant get any debt so the guys just release insane numbers of shares to fund these projects

So, if we get equity destroying financing that increases the shares on issue by 2.2 billion, we then add in another 200 million option bonuses to management (lets say they are greedy little buggers over the next few years), we then come to a fully diluted number of 6 billion shares.

If we assume that all of these shares are used to finance we can then remove your 'debt' assumption and then we are looking at our 2billion dollar company with 6 billion shares.

That still creates a value of 33 cents per share before any additional value is added from botswana or any new potential assets required.

Funding for a minnow is always expensive, if you get debt, the debt is expensive. Sometimes the stipulations of the debt mean that the upfront negativity of capital raisings can be better than royalty based loans. I dont know if it will or wont be in this case, im just talking about principles of mining atm, not specifically with CCC.

The thing about funding is that its not company destroying. Lack of resource, uneconomical resource/production prices, property law not being protected, poor/lacking infrastructure are just some of the major risks that destroy companies. CCC has none of the true 'company destroying' risks that can be present.

Yes we can theorise on black swan events and talk about all these things that COULD POSSIBLE HAPPEN if we want. But realistically if you are that risk averse why are you reading HC? Any company can have a black swan event, in the past 3 years we've had RIO nearly go bankrupt and BP dump half its SP in a few weeks- no public company is immune.

2 mines are in production making money hence risk free (yes maybe at margins worse than hoped for, but this ISNT company destroying and can be normal for an end life mine).
Penumbra is past BFS stage and has rail allocation
DWC still is at BFS stage BUT is in one of the world's premier thermal coal belts, it already has a strong resource and looks to currently be getting a more 'definite' JORC as we speak- CCC's 6 drills are there currently.

I still think most of the downramping is purely coming from Share Price related negativity rather than good fundamental analysis. I believe as the share price has decreased people have started putting more weight behind conspiracy theory related black swan events that were just as likely to happen at 9.2 as they are now... Yet at 9.2 nobody was mentioning them whatsoever.

I believe that at 9-12 we are much more fairly priced considering the potential growth of CCC yet being mindful of the heavy CAPEX required in the coming years to fulfill said strategy. I always had a near term target of 12 in my mind since prior to the Brokerage reports, funnily enough it seems like all brokers think similarly to me.