In case anyone hasn't noticed, the Conti website has been...

In case anyone hasn't noticed, the Conti website has been updated, including projected free cash flows from Vlak,Ferreira, Pen & Dewitt. Post Penumbra full production looking at approximately $50m free cash pa. Then ~$80m post DeWitt(assuming Ferreira closed). With a multiple of 6 that's a MC of $480m for CCL* with no value given to Vlakplaats, Vaalbank, Project X, Knapdaar, Wolvenfontein, etc

Of course we still need to see what infrastructure & funding solutions are available for DeWitts.

Unknowns as far as valuations go, is what the market will consider Botswana assets are worth - not to mention Colombia & USA, if they materialize.

*apply a 26% discount for BEE partners, assuming they have covered their share of development costs.

Post Vanmag & Sioc full settlement CCC will have approx $40m cash, assuming there is currently $10m in the bank. Sioc also have an outstanding Zar75m to pay CCC.

Undrawn ABSA facilities $65m total
Still owe EDF approx $10m
From memory con notes are $15m at a 10% interest rate, conversion price 80c.

Interesting developments of note: Indonesia & Australia applying new taxes to coal, Indians touting need to bump up imports dramatically to cover domestic shortfalls, increases in Chinese coal production costs & infrastructure constraints keeping imported coal competitive, Eskom looking to secure LT supplies in Conti's neighborhood with Conti only one of 25 contracted suppliers.

Bearish factors: dropping coal demand in EU & USA, slower growth rates in China, SA still tainted with nationalization bogey (even though it's been emphatically rejected by the ANC - but threat of a Gillard style MRRT looms), global coal investor sentiment depressed (look at charts for Peabody & Alpha) ... I'm sure there are more grim scenarios lurking ...

But CCC have locked in record high hedging rates for Penumbra, have a LT supply agreement with Eskom, and EDF are willing to take all RB coal for next 20yrs at spot prices. Also have the support of Sioc-cdt, KORES & ABSA Barclays.

Can't see any other sub $100m MC producer with as much going for it, and with such high caliber partners & directors like Don Turvey, Mike Kilbride & Johan Bloemsma, with decades of experience at the top levels of major coal companies. If you know any, please let me know.

Happy Easter all :)