Posted my analysis in another thread, but for those who may not follow that particular thread I've copied it below for your perusal.
Assume sale of NZ assets offsets current debt 100% with no free cash flow (worst case scenario for analysis even though we know this not to be the case).
- Agreeing with the assumption of $1/L revenue to CCF
- Assume running off 418 cows (if my memory serves correctly)
- Modern dairy cow produces 35-50L milk per day, say we take 35L as a conservative measure (http://www.animalsaustralia.org/factsheets/dairy_cows.php)
-180 days used, assuming CCF only producing milk for 6mths
- Total revenue should be $3m + 35*180*418*$1 = $5,633,400 for FY16
So for a DCF we require:
Sales revenue - operating costs - taxes - net investment - working capital = FCF
- Revenue as above: 5633400
- Operating costs are unknown, however if we extrapolate the announced EBITDA of $1m for Q1, EBITDA for FY16 is $4m. Revenue - EBITDA = $1,633,400 (an approximation for operating costs
- Taxes: 30%*EBITDA = $1,200,000
- Net investment: Not sure on cap ex, so assume 5% of total revenue = 281670
- Change working cap = current assets - current liabilities = 1648307 - 1279484 = 368823
Resulting in Free cash flow FY16 of: $2,149,507
Now to forecast the FCF for 5 years, assume a VERY modest growth rate of 4%. We already know that they expect to have 2,500 cows, a significant increase. 2500/418= 598% growth!
Forecasted FCF's are: $2,235,487, $2,324,907, $2,417,903, $2,514,619.
Terminal value ( value of company's cashflows once its matured. Assume a long term growth of 2%. Calculated using the Gordon Growth Model. TV= )final yr projected CF * 1+long term growth rate) / (discount rate - long term growth rate).
Use discount rate of 8% as outlined by company.
TV = (2514619 * 1.02)/(0.08-0.02)= $42,748,525.8
Now to calculate enterprise value: This is just the sum of the NPV of each years FCF's. With the terminal value discounted for 5 years.
EV = 2149507/1.08 + 2235487/1.08^2 + 2324907/1.08^3 + 2417903/1.08^4 + 2514619/1.08^5 + 42748525.8/1.08^5
= $38,335,007
Share Price:
We know there are 131m shares on issue. So share price should be:
38335007/131000000 = $0.29
Based on my analysis above, the 'fair' 'true' 'real' price of CCF should be 29c per share. If and when this will occur, I couldnt say. All i can say is that i do think the forecasted share price is very attainable and could be reached within the 2016 Financial year.
Add to My Watchlist
What is My Watchlist?