ccl downside risk, page-18

loose correlation, not tight, fatbloater. and you also have to consider some positive trends

- coke isnt quite a luxury, albeit it is a non essential. but when its cheaper than most bottled water its not a big budget item that has to be cut. in careful times the kids wont get quite so much of it etc. but water is boring to drink all the time - so flavoured beverages will always have a strong market.

- yes Australia has aging bell curve pop distr - but also one of fastest rates of population growth in oecd developed countries. Proportions arent same as absolutes. Its probable there will be more coke customers not less.

- sugar consumption has been an issue since the 80s. coke zero and diet coke will be the core future for the unmixed carbonated drinks segment i would expect. though i do think prevalence of diabetes may throw further emphasis on this point.

but realistically all these trends were known pre-gfc and ccl revenues were much higher. the change has been the gfc, reduced willingness to spend, and at the same time greater market power of dominant distributors.

so in my view theres likely a further dip in Aussie sales revenue now occuring due to the budgets reduction of income for working families, unemployed and pensioners - but it should gradually be compensated for by increasing resilience in margins as economic confidence recovers and CCA gets more pricing power back.

the x factors would be indonesian sales traction or forging a better deal from coles and woolies - but those are items Id hope for rather than expecting.

so i think the stock will see the $8s when they report the full year in Aug and the optimists get overwhelmed by further earnings downgrade plus I expect some capex spend by new ceo and further writeoffs - but it will then recover and move well north of where it is now

lot of factors here to keep watching - but thats my view at this stage.