At
https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/g19/current/ tthere is scats of information on outstanding USA personal debt. To make life simple, consider just the debt held by depository institutions in $US billions, because that is the type of debt that CCP prefers buying. As much as I tried, I could not get HC to align the content of the table below to be on the LHS.
| Column 1 | Column 2 | Column 3 | Column 4 | Column 5 | Column 6 |
|---|
| 1 |
| 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 |
|---|
| 2 | Total | 3830.8 | 4007 | 4192.2 | 4184.9 | 4431.3 |
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| 3 |
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| 4 | Depository Ins | 1633.2 | 1687.4 | 1774.1 | 1687.5 | 1827.2 |
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One can see that the debt held by depository institutions has grown, but what is more important is that in 2020 and 2021 there was a high level of mandated debt moratoria, plus lender forbearance. This supports the view one often finds that PDL supply in the USA is going to increase in calendar year 2022 (the fiscal year in the USA). Suffice to say, for CCP's FY23 ending July 2023, CCP can probably buy as much as it elects to invest at its target rate of return. We should see this in the next “Guidance”, which is slated to be on Tuesday, 02/08/2022.
The constraint for CCP may be a shortage of collections staff, which is why CCP has commenced a night shift in the Philippines to service the USA. and no doubt other recruitment and automation initiatives. I would expect that starting a collections team in Puerto Rico would occupy some of Management's thinking, but nothing will be communicated until that is cast in concrete. All collections teams in the USA need a degree of English-Spanish bilingualism, and that makes Puerto Rico ideal.
Anyhow, let us see what is stated in the FY2023 Guidance expected on Tuesday. I expect ANZ PDL purchases to be flat, but one never knows, because Australian-owned alternative buyers are not in a strong position. Maybe the likes of PRA, which has an Australian branch, would take up the slack that CLH's exit from the scene creates. CCP has a much cleaner record than PRA – just Google PRA litigation, and see for yourself.
(20min delay)