I think that's a very conservative estimate when you say NPAT...

I think that's a very conservative estimate when you say NPAT $19m in 2021, my thoughts would be $23m on the low side and $28m on the high side.
We should have a really good indication as of upcoming half year results either way, I think the market is being pretty conservative with CCV which is pretty bloody understandable considering recent history LOL
There is certainly no "CCV premium" or "growth baked into the share-price" as the analfists like to say
IMO this half should see some really good results for everything bar the car loans which will hopefully at least be at a point where the trajectory for bad debt is pointing in the right way, also the old leasing program is almost a memory, gone pre-fy results if my memory isn't mistaken.

Imagine EOY results with reducing bad debts in car loans, no more lease obligations for Greenlight Auto, Class Action done and dusted with growth continuing in every category! (albeit likely modest growth)
This is what I think will be the reality come full year results, IMO a much better deal on our debt will likely be in place by then also as the current one is pretty poor, completely expected when viewed from the lens of a prospective financier in the position we were in at the time.
When a better debt deal is in place (not unrealistic to get $200-250m at 200bps less IMO) then real capital allocation decisions can start being made, ie; dividends and buybacks, my preference is buybacks asap, even before refinancing if at all possible, buy as many as possible without defaulting, use as many franking credits as possible then refinance and start paying some nice fully franked dividends ongoing.

I don't see an issue with the current balance sheet buying back $10m worth of shares safely, unless of course something is not going well which is entirely possible, not a huge buyback but better now than over 40c which is just a matter of months away IMO. (either HY or at worst FY results)

PS: still have my sentiment at HOLD, only due to personal capital allocation decisions at present, would generally be a BUY, may even do exactly that but hold more than I should already