CDV chart, page-99

CDV Weekly Chart.

I wanted to update my weekly chart from February (replied to) now that we’ve had the initial rise and pullback as suggested.

You can see from the comparison of before and after charts below that the stock is moving in quite a predictable way. That is a punch up through 50% of the prior peak at $0.385, a retrace and then the bull phase resumes. The amplitude of the initial punch up is not really predictable, but it got up higher than I’d probably expect as it was the run up to a capital raising and a few good announcements came out ahead of that.

The pullback to the marked 50% line (in black) was very predictable in that it would normally test a few cents below that level before recovering. Note that no week closed below the 50% level. In this case there was the $0.40 round number just above the $0.385 level which was likely to hold it up a bit, hence my comment on 6/4/2017 of “40 (+/- 3 cents) is my pullback target” and is what actually occurred. https://hotcopper.com.au/posts/23919174/single

Note also that it was a 5 week pullback into the May low (count the bars). Counter-Trends in a bull phase are typically 3wks +/- 1 wk. So a 5 week pullback was a little late getting back down there. @GANZ that day it touched $0.0375 and you tagged me for technical comment was the actual low day. I didn’t want to comment at that point in order to let the chart do what it will without influence, but the low was overdue by then and likely you were picking it.

Where to from here:

It’s clear we are in a Wave 3 bull phase and so onwards and upwards. I’ve placed on my chart some markers against which I’m tracking this next run. Note that I don’t want to put this out as predictions, just markers. So for example at the moment the chart has got a bit ahead of itself and needs to work sideways to down to move across to the pink dotted line.

The pink dotted lines are based on the slope of the original run in 2016 and just copied across. So I’ll be tracking the rate of change against that. The orange level at 100% extension and 162% extension are the normal targets where you get pauses and a bit of sideways work. These seem reasonable given the price levels there and timing.

I don’t in any way suggest these targets as limiting the upside to the price. We could go to $120+++ with this, I don't know, that's more fundamental. Just that as there will be a flow of announcements over the next 6 mths, the pink lines and orange marks are my reference points for tracking the moves against, and whether the stock is looking strong or weak as we go.

Note that I'm quite comfortable with the projections charted below. To consider the alternatives though, if I'm wrong its more likely to be due to time than price I think. Meaning that we could consolidate between here and the ATH50% more than expected, or it runs to the 100% extension in orange and works more sideways from there to soak up time.

Before and After charts below: