What you are spreading Brucey is carefully timed...

  1. Osi
    15,924 Posts.
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    What you are spreading Brucey is carefully timed semi-disinformation Brucey. Turkish Intelligence agencies will be the primary source behind the your posts noting that the status of Christian churches within Turkey can are being used as leverage to get a certain message out.

    I said semi-disinformation rather than dis-information. All sides in the Syrian wars and the Turkish civil war use semi-disinformation to promote their respective causes. There is most often a level of truth in such statements but it is always exaggerated to the exclusion of all else.

    Armenians (many of whom are descendant from family survivors of the 1915 Genocide ) are fleeing before the advance of the Turkish Army and (self declared) Islamo-fascist militias. The same militias have destroyed Armenian towns and villages elsewhere in Syria over the last 8 years. Armenians are being ethnically cleansed.

    Recent friction between some sections of the Armenian community and the YPG's not-so-secret police (Asayish) may have a lot to do with Armenian support for Assad. Some Armenians support the SDF. Most Syrian Armenians reportedly support Assad. There was a US project to bring the Asayish into line but it was scuttled by Trump. Regardless the issue is a complete red herring in comparison to what may happen next.

    Trump does not prepare for any meetings. Putin does. With Putin about to meet with Erdogan, all positions will have been agreed (or disagreed) in principle prior to the actual meeting. All we can therefore do is look to he war map movements to ascertain what may have already been agreed between Turkey and Russia.

    A bottom line is this. Trump has cemented the long term influence of Russian and Iran over broader region (including Iraqi Kurdistan). I don't like this new reality but all we can do now is ask that Russia and Iran behave and do the right thing by Syria. As with the various parties within Syria, Russia now needs to practice what it preaches (lest Putin be ranked alongside Trump in terms of strategic competence).

    My gut feel (and I maybe wrong) is that Putin has to see advantage in strengthening the indigenous Syrian position in the face of underlying Turkish and Iranian rivalries. This outcome can only be achieved through formally linking the SDF and the SAA while negotiating a constitutional outcome (that involves give as well as take from Assad). If Assad misbehaves at this critical junction point he will lose the north of Syria to Turkey and remain the long term proxy puppet of Iran.

    cheers












    Last edited by Osi: 21/10/19
 
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