Emily mentioned the SDV process has been stopped due to the current lithium market situation, but did not mention that the negotiation with existing shortlisted partners are still on going, which mean the deal is still alive. Should we say it is still too early to claim the deal will never come.
JL said mt Cattlin has marginal spod quality which we all know and the latest quarter cash cost is over 450/ton which is on the high end compare to others. However, did he read the report that on the month of March, the cash cost is down to 415/ton and we heard from the previous conference call that it will be eventually go down to 300-350/ton range? Bear in mind gxy has no debt means we do not have hidden cost that others have “high interest loan”. How gxy not able to survive?
it is true JL claimed that the chairman shd have done the deal 2 years back when the lithium market is best, but then again, do any of us including JL knew early 2018 was the peak of the lithium? Trust me if we all knew that, we would have sold our shares n gladly buy back at today level. JL claimed that gxy chairman believe SDV worth higher value that is the reason gxy not getting the deal from the potential partners, this maybe true at least for the case of Ganfeng. But he still admit that SDV is world class low cost brine available. He goes on saying the earliest for SDV to be on production will be 2023 (if SDV start TODAY to develop the mine), and then time for ramp-up for another year, say 2024. Even if we give another year say by 2025, is it the end of lithium demand by then or we agree with the prediction from the expert that the LCE demand will go to over 1mio ton by 2025, so why it is so grey?
I am trying to find the logic why he claimed that gxy is no longer the good investment and they hv missed their chance?? Yes, they may have missed the chance on the deal when lithium price was peaked 2 years back, but from the latest conference call, AT did mention that the SDV is worth around 700mio (base valuation from the northern sold price) and from AT tone that gxy is willing to meet in between, means they may have lower their expectation to go for a deal soon. Let just say the worst they don’t get the deal now, they can still go alone with maybe smaller start-up, or even the worst case, gxy do nothing in SDV for now, do we all (including JL) agree that the lithium price will raise again in a year or two and the demand will explode. At that time, should we agree that SDV will still be one of the best low cost brine that can cut a better deal at that point in time? As long as Mt. Cattlin can stay in profit and with the existing cash in the bank to cushion for at least 2 years, why is gxy not a good investment? Maybe the expert view differently than mom & dad like me, time will tell.
Expand
