MSB 1.02% 97.0¢ mesoblast limited

@alhambra, interesting supposition regarding a concerted effort...

  1. 371 Posts.
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    @alhambra, interesting supposition regarding a concerted effort to lower the share price in advance of a “change of ownership “. Will this be a hostile or agreed bid? I am assuming hostile as this start is not so friendly. Either way when and at what price?
    I thought the recent share fall on the back on the results, was caused by small shareholders giving up. Now it appears it is being driven by an artificial shorting exercise (judging from your and others comment here and short man data contained in those comments, which I am taking as accurate)
    So what you have left is the big shareholders who have held long term and the retail investors who by now are mainly those who trust the science, the management team and understand the real value of their investment.
    So hostile takeover, at what price? Next month we get the OTAT meeting it seems. That is the “starting gun” for a timed sequence of events that will include a confirmatory trial with the benefit of hindsight to repeat with greater consistency repeatable outcomes to meet a primary endpoint that will be lower than we will achieve, but still obliterate best current practice. Result some 12 months later of an income stream and a valuation 20-(whatever you want to) x current price.
    If the bidder is not Novartis, will they just sit idly by? If it is Novartis then it just proves the value of our IP and other therapies over and above All Cause Ards. So again what price?
    I suspect that this short may well be the classic we think you will need to issue shares so we will drive the price down in advance. Now here @alhambra I would like a bit of help. In the last CC, SI spoke about this $20 odd million of cells already produced that will be added to the balance sheet at the appropriate time. Was that at the cost of production (ie what we spent) or the value when we can sell them? These cells have a ready market, just on GVHD. With approval that “mark up” will enable us to borrow very easily as each cell will add value to the balance sheet. So with or without Novartis, following OTAT financial security will only be a few months away with GVHD and even more after the short Ards trial.
    I agree that OTAT being a unclear outcome or serious delay will make us vulnerable. There is time for this to become clear. A good outcome and even you might start buying and even you would not sell yourself short accepting a derisory offer for those shares.
    Of course, if someone offered us $50 aus now, 25-50% cash and rest shares, I would take it.
    Regards
    Yelrom


 
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