@GMFJ apologies for the ramble but your excellent post got me thinking, particularly your last point “Hopefully MSB has a strong established revenue stream by then”. It seems as if everything that has happened since the CRL back in October 2020 has made us target number 1 for (in reference to your comment) “pie gobblers”. The Data and understanding of MOA have improved considerably. The board expertise on all things FDA has been strengthened also considerably (English understatement) and our only rival that has approval Jakafi ruxolitinib as everyone knows, comes with horrible side effect (too toxic for kids) and doesn’t work to any degree in the real world long term survivability measurement. Rem-L approval for SRGvH is critically financially to provide us with the cashflow for the blockbusters.
This brings me back to your concern about the “pie gobblers wanting not just a slice, not even the whole pie, but in our case ready made and proven ingredients for a huge industry leading pie to gorge upon.
I just hope that all of us LTH’s can afford to wait and that this is enough alongside the bigger holders to kick any takeover offer into touch until at least until we have Rex-L approval for lower back and heart.
I have stayed off HC for about 5 months, while the share price has tumbled and now bumbles along a low volume bottom. Time is no friend for a small biotech company at this stage of its development. Without the cashflow of the first approval, the writing was on the wall and an easy short. Relatively, we have come through unscathed while the company has negotiated their way back towards resubmission. Here the opaque forward statements with subtle (or not so subtle depending on your views) changes on timelines has not helped, For me the most disappointing was the “momentous few months” SI proclamation.
So what concerns me is how many shareholders are just hoping to exit asap? How much faith do they have in SI after the “failure” of the past few years? Using
@reginaldp Clock analogy, I simply cannot tell the time and have to keep recalibrating “soon”. Currently what “soon” means to me, is a tangible significant announcement this year and cashflow positive on current expenditure + manufacturing and marketing costs by third quarter next year. I think 2024 will be CLBP which comes with a company valuation I could live with if my share of the “pie” is stolen in a take over I would be most likely have opposed.
Heart? I have no “clock calibration “ at all. Significant announcement timescale? Data fantastic, response from the FDA exciting, suspect we are further along the path than we might think but that one will just have to remain in the surprise party draw. I put Crohn’s in a similar draw and just think Amy is amazing and she will succeed.
Covid and Ards is a toss up. I believe that the west cannot close down again. Treatments have improved but winter is coming in this hemisphere and there will be significant numbers where we are needed. However if this was the approval I was waiting for I expect I would not be a shareholder now.
Over the next few weeks we have our AGM and quarterly, gives us all a chance to analyse every word uttered by SI and the board. Let’s just hope those “momentous months” follow.
Meanwhile I will keep following HC. Given the number of being I have on ignore and given their frequency of posting, it can be a little disjointed, but there are those whose postings I find informative and entertaining, which keeps me coming back.
regards
Yelrom
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