Thanks @07Gerard.As you say, the author raises some interesting points. I don't mind these reviews as they allow me to do a quick check against my own risk analysis and bias.
My take on a few points in the article:
- As others have commented, the author's incorrect statement about the clinical work being done in Australia, and then his further statement that this was a critical fact to take into account when considering MSB as an investment, made a poor mistake worse.
- The author's point about Revascor not meeting its primary endpoint is correct, but a macro view only, which misses the significant and relevent secondary endpoint data that was generated.
- I do agree with the author's point about the financials not being the best, which is why, while I'm not ecstatic about the price at which they gave the 122 million share overhang away at, I'm okay with it. I don't know why the price wasn't better, but I'm okay with it, because I'm open to the possibility that Reme for SR-aGVHD in kids may not not be approved based on the additional assay information being provided. If it's not approved then the share price gets shot again, and we may be down to 20c a share. I'd rather raise as little as possible at 20c. Taking funds now at 30c is a bird in hand call in my opinion - SI may be learning the hard way that confidence does not equate to approvals.
At this stage I think the science is not in question, what is in question, is whether MSB can remain a going concern, while it continues on it's convoluted path to FDA approval.
On the remaining as going concern point, I think MSB's Hypoplastic left heart syndrome (HLHS) product for kids could be relevant. While the indication is small, if MSB gets FDA approval for it without the need for another trial, MSB's cash flows improve a little, and some of that funding pressure comes off.It depends on how quickly they can generate sales, and whether or not they can use those sales to obtain some funding at more reasonable rates than the Oaktree facility.
All this waiting would try a saint!
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