@dplane - I think most of the LTSHs are in the HODL camp now,...

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ddwn

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30/07/20

16:46

Post #: 46191768
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Originally posted by dplane: ↑

Absolutely the case. We were all sweating bullets on the delay, assuming that the 90 had been dosed ages ago, and the lack of news meant the DMC had reviewed and found no overwhelming efficacy at that stage (presumably down to overall decreases in mortality).

Now we know that is NOT the case. The full 90 number was only just hit (and I think we can safely assume that the next sets of numbers for interim analysis may well be achieved faster, given the massive uptick in cases/deaths).

It's harder to say whether the language around CHF and CBP portends anything one way or the other as to their outcomes. I would read them as neutral to neutral-positive, where they are definitely included in the language about MSB going INTO the most significant period in its history (though admittedly, "significant" can be read alot of ways...). But really impossible to say much more than that.

But seeing as we are now likely waiting until September for news on ARDS, if there IS bad news about either or both trials, I think would rather get it out of the way BEFORE the ARDS results. Let the share price take its pounding from the letdown, and then climb back up on good news from AGVHD and Rem-L for COVID ARDS (a'la KODAK).

LTHs that are selling on this announcement, seems to me that that is just a bit of pique on your part. Sure, you can buy back in cheaper if you are selling your higher-price purchased shares and we get crap readouts in the next 1.5 months, with a concomitant SP drop.

But what if we don't get crap readouts? Then you just threw money away in frustration.

For me, the show for which I bought "tickets" (i.e., shares) is the release of announcements for AGVHD, CLBP and CHF. Why would I leave the theater or give up my tickets before ANY of those cliffhangers had resolved?! Sorry, HODL-ing till the bitter (or sweet) end here.

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@dplane - I think most of the LTSHs are in the HODL camp now, why would any of us jump when we can see the lights at the end of the tunnel for AGVHD, CLBP and CHF...

And then in addition, we have the bonus for Rem-L Covid-19 ARDS and other possible extensions including MIS-C and Crohns.

We are going to find out one way or another.

What is the worst case scenario?
If everything, but aGVHD goes pear shape? 50% decrease from the current SP - say $2? (would we have an opportunity to jump out before hand)?
VS
What is the possible upside, if everything was successful? Pick a number

MSB Price at posting: $3.83 Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
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0 Great analysis

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