Very interesting video. Thanks to the several contributors.
I usually ignore semi-informed declarations such as revealed in this video. I daresay the majority of readers here are also hugely sceptical of information that could only have been leaked. Most of us are confident that the organisers of the trial and the professional participants in the hospitals and MSB, above all, are acutely conscious of the need to maintain trial integrity and FDA support by not breaching confidentially.
And anyway, each of the numerous trial sites has only a tunnel view of he progress of their patients and they don't know what proportion of the patients under their care are in one or other cohort. So, I doubt there has been an accurate leak.
But.....but....., those numbers the presenter quoted are intriguing. And that's taking her literally as saying 75 PERCENT of 90 patients with moderate to severe ARDS, (not 75 by number), have been taken off ventilators. The 75% is a very nice fit with our expectations.
What are our expectations? A couple of our most respected posters have noted that improved standard of care for all patients should improve survival for the control group.
As many as 60% of them might now survive, a great improvement over the previous woeful number.
And with the improved SOC let's allow that the Rem-L. cohort survival improves Mt Sinai's small trial result from 83% to 90% survivors.
So, we would think that a very possible result for MSB in the current RCT could be 60% survivors of 45 controls (= 27 survivors) and 90% of 45 in the Rem-L. group ( = 40.5). Total survivors = 67.5. Which just happens to be exactly the 75% of 90 patients in the video.
To make sure, let's apply our theoretical, expected, but quite possible results to the video's quote.
She said 75% of 90. That's 67.5 off ventilators. So how many in each cohort?
Rem-L cohort: 90% survived of 45 patients = 40.5 survivors.
Control group: 60% survived of 45 patients = 27 survivors.
Total = 67.5 survivors. What a nice fit with our expectations.
Coincidence? Or a setup?
I state very clearly here that I strongly doubt there has been a credible leak. And why would it only be revealed in this relative backwater source? There is another possible reason for the video numbers.
I'm no conspiracy theorist but I do know that the sharemarket in general and the pharma area in particular can be a dirty game. So we need to be aware that some upramper could have observed respected commentators quote the 60%/90% possible results, applied them to the fact that we know 90 subjects have been treated, added the "75% off ventilators", and waited for someone with too much time on their hands Sunday morning, like me, to excite the market.
Beware the pump and dump. While these numbers are intriguing, they may be more than a coincidence. I won't let them change my investment plan.
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