Hi HC Members,
Firstly thanks to CatalystDriven & TaylorTJames for their posts. Found them positive & interesting. Thank you.
In regard to the Cenkos valuation (aka 0.29c @ scoping study level); note I have not witnessed full report just extracts/snippets
I deem it incorrect & have queries to raise. I dont know if its higher or lower. Hopefully someone with financial modelling smarts can assist.
Query 1. Has Cenkos factored a premium into their price? (from what I see, no)
Development Assets: are those on which economically viable deposit has been demonstrated to exist by a Feasibility Study or Pre-feasibility Study but is not yet financed or under construction. Such properties are at a sufficiently advanced stage or are former producing mines. There is enough reliable information available to value the property by discounted cash flow methods, with a reasonable degree of confidence. In general, such information includes reasonably assured mineable reserves, workable mining plan and production rate, metallurgical test results and process recoveries, capital and operating cost estimates, environmental and reclamation cost estimates, and commodity price projections.The above is from a CSA Global website
https://www.csaglobal.com/valuation-for-mineral-projects-part-1/They are not at "Development" status & aware that the twinning program (which is to validate the resource to todays standard and increase confidence) which if proven correct is a catalyst for a deep seeded intrinsic revaluation and change the project status with immediate effect but that to the side, have they considered a premium?
1. Tenement package (sizable representation)
2. Converting inferred to indicated (its a seam & practically tabular in formation)
3. Neighbours have proven the geology, underground mining capability, geotechnical settings, established & (possible but unlikely) supporting infrastructure, skilled labour, ESG & most importantly saleable product(s).
4. Comparable transactions
5. Percentage of spot price in their sum of parts
The resource is more than adequate. 325Mt @ 13.1% at a reasonable depth (~550m avg), I just think point 3 adds an X factor which I feel Cenkos (might of) missed. I understand I could clearly wrong.
As the above mentioned seems to paint a positive picture, I do have a negative concern which concludes my dilemma of should it be higher or lower
Query 2. There are a staggering
203.6M options in total (quoted & unquoted) vs 474.4M share on issue.
All options are relatively in the money or close to it.
What does a fully diluted SHP look like? Has Cenkos factored (or missed) this in?
Their mining costs look appropriate for the stage of project life & they respectfully applied a conservative spot price but fully diluted... Im unsure.
Adds ~$28M to the bank account in future (staggered over years) which is commendable for all the future study work but concerns over the share price with full dilution. (I tried accessing document their website, no luck as im not a client)
What have I missed? Looking forward to (fingers crossed) constructive feedback.
Apologies in advance to Cenkos for any inconvenience cause if they read this.
As at 15.12.2021 a simple EV/Resource ($60M MC - $11M Cash = $49M EV / 325M = 0.15c kind of where we sit today.
But is 0.29c right?
