Paul, while that is good post, it does assume that to Drill Surprise East would cost north of $8 million.
I just don't believe that is the case.
Also, CTP could simply defer drilling the prospect until Santos has drilled NW Mereenie and re-entered Mt Kitty (I realise that would anger many, but it is a option). Either even could cause a large upswing in the SP, which if it stayed above $0.50 for a decent amount of time, might trigger Mq Bank to excise its options which would bring in $7.5 million. I doubt CTP could organise a rig to drill S.E before either of the 2 events I mention above anyway (happy to be proven wrong of course).
btw- I would probably lower your estimate of what CTP is currently making on its oil sales ($50 just to be conservative for now), as they did say that the less being produced, the lower the margin.
In regards to infrastructure spend, any work related to Palm Valley or Dingo would be funded by the Credit facility with Mq Bank.
Hopefully RC and the team are looking at multiple options to get things moving. For starters, I am still surprised it has taken Australia O&G stocks so long to bring in rigs from overseas that can drill faster, cheaper and be more mobile.
Of course, there could be something outside of CTPs control that could occur, like a positive report/proposal on the building a pipeline to connect with W.A or N.T to the Eastern Gas markets...
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